Mathematical modelling for strategic decision-making in the future space economy

Adam Abdin

University of Paris-Saclay

As space becomes commercial, strategic decision-making is a central challenge. A growing number of independent actors, constellation operators, infrastructure providers, resource users, and regulators, make self-interested decisions within one shared physical environment. Where to place satellites, which targets to pursue, how much to invest in mitigation, and which access rules to set all shift risk, cost, and opportunity across the system, and uncoordinated choices can erode the safety, accessibility, and economic value of orbit. This project develops a mathematical framework for analysing those interactions and the policies that govern them. It combines game theory and optimisation: non-cooperative equilibrium models describe how operators compete over shared orbital resources, while Stackelberg and bilevel formulations describe how a regulator can steer that competition through instruments such as congestion fees, slot allocation, mitigation incentives, and access rules. Its distinguishing feature is that these strategic models are not built on assumed collision rates but calibrated to physics: ACT's open-source cascade simulator, which propagates large orbital populations and detects conjunctions, provides a measured and testable link between deployment decisions and the collision risk they generate, keeping the economic and governance analysis grounded in real orbital dynamics. The same framework extends across the emerging space economy, from mega-constellation congestion in low Earth orbit, to debris management, competition over lunar and asteroid resources, and the governance of future orbital infrastructure.